Thanks so much for putting a piece out there that you know is going to stir up some dust. Life is only worth living if I can consider and reply to interesting positions.

Is it a red herring that there are few instances of trans people committing crimes?

Theoretically, one of the reasons societies have laws is to ensure that all are treated as equal citizens regardless of accidental features such as strength, genitalia, race, hairstyle, etc. Men are often stronger than women, as well as more aggressive. So, laws should often protect women from male aggression. Women should not have to demonstrate that they have been harmed in order to get laws put in place. (Though historically, cruelly, women have had to survive harm in order to prove it.)

BUT, theoretically, people could start to jump off of high bridges on a daily basis. If bridges suddenly became a public danger, I'd bet that lawmakers would respond. If car accidents were very significantly more frequent, a society might make cars illegal.

Empirically determined facts do help us know how to implement our theories for the good of the populace. Right now it looks like trans folks are far more often the victims of violence than the perpetrators of it. (I guess I can't put the links in a comment, but I'll send the articles if you like.) That would suggest that the law needs to protect them because they are at risk because of their accidental features. An MtF person, given the culture, could be at serious risk in the men's bathroom.

That does not mean that cis-women should not be protected. Not at all.

And bullies suck, whatever body they are inhabiting.

I do not have this all figured out. Not one bit. But you made me think this morning, and that's the best! Thanks for your piece!